DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/03 10:46
Grain Futures on the Way Up Midday Friday
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents higher, beans are 19 to 21 cents higher and wheat
is 8 to 12 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 145 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.15 higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are
firmer with crude up $1.45. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
mixed with gold up $14.00.
Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents higher at midday Friday with trade settling into
the middle part of the recent range. Ethanol margins have narrowed with the
energy move lower and concerns about ethanol past Christmas, with driving
demand holding up decently short term. Basis should remain steady to firmer
short term with fall field work likely to make good progress where supplies are
available. On the March contract, we have resistance at the 20-day moving
average at $5.78, which we are holding above at midday, then the upper
Bollinger Band at $5.94 as further resistance.
Soybean trade is 19 to 21 cents higher at midday with trade working back
toward the upper end of the range and weather concerns ticking up. Meal is
$9.50 to $10.50 higher and oil is 0.75 cent to 0.85 cent higher. South America
looks to continue short-term progress with issues remaining limited for now
while the extended forecast is trending drier Friday, especially for Argentina
and Southern Brazil. Crush margins remain solid but further product weakness
would limit enthusiasm. USDA announced 122,000 metric tons old to unknown. On
the January soybean chart, we bounced back above the 20-day at $12.43 Thursday,
with further resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $12.91.
Wheat trade is 8 to 15 cents lower with Chicago holding up best so far as we
give back some of the rebound from Thursday with little fresh news on the world
front. The dollar is just above 96 points, continuing to hold the upper end of
the range with calmer trade. Weather in the Plains looks little changed short
term with longer-term dry concerns for the Southern Plains heading toward
dormancy with mixed forecasts in Australia short term. Spring wheat is weaker
versus Chicago moving the premium to 2.21 cents on the March, with KC at a
24-cent premium in weaker action so far. KC March chart support is at the
20-day at $8.35, which we bounced back above overnight before fading back from
with the recent low at $8.15 as the first level of support.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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